Quote this article:Zhe ZHANG,Zhi hong LI,Fang hao WAN,Wen long NI,Wei wei QU. Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of Ceratitis rosa Karsch in China[J]. Journal of Biosafety, 2011, 20(1): 43-49.
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Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of Ceratitis rosa Karsch in China
Zhe ZHANG1, Zhihong LI2, Fanghao WAN3, Wenlong NI2, Weiwei QU1
1.中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院昆虫系,北京 100193;2.中国农业科学院植物保护研究所,植物病虫害生物学国家重点实验室,北京 100193
Abstract:
Ceratitis rosa Karsch (Diptera: Tephritidae) can damage over 30 species host plants, and is one of the import quarantine pests by China.The current and future potential geographic distribution of C.rosa were predicted by using CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3. The results showed that the current potential geographic distribution areas were between 18.250°N~30.250°N, the geographic distribution areas with high potential were southeastern and southern China, including Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and Taiwan. For the future potential geographic distribution in 2020, 2050 and 2100, it was predicted that the northern boundary of the potential geographic distribution areas moved to 31.250°N, 32.250°N and 33.750°N respectively, the medium potential geographic distribution areas moved northwards obviously in 2020 and 2050, the high potential geographic distribution areas moved northwards obviously in 2100. Therefore, in order to prevent the invasion of C.rosa, the quarantine and monitor measures should be enhanced more in China, the mainly monitoring network should be in south of China, particularly in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian and Hainan, and carry on the long term monitoring. In view of the future potential geographic distribution of C.rosa in China, we should be regular monitoring in Hunan, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Hubei, Jiangsu, Anhui.
Key words:  Ceratitis rosa  potential geographic distribution  CLIMEX  ArcGIS
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1.Department of Entomology, College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2.Department of Entomology, College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University;3.State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Beijing 100193, China